finally

Though I’ve never seen a corpse try so hard to resuscitate itself.

muddy waters

I watched a great interview tonight on PBS.  Bill Moyers was interviewing Leila Fadel, a reporter currently working in Baghdad.  I enjoyed it for two reasons.  One, Leila is 26 and I’m really jealous of the work she gets to do.  Not so much the living in a war zone bit (that takes a special type) but that she is doing work that really has weight and meaning to it.  As an aspiring documentary photographer, I can only hope to one day do something as important.  The other reason I enjoyed the interview was its tone.  This was not a discussion of right and wrong and whether we should have gone in or not, whether we (the American public) were lied to or not, or why we need to leave immediately.  Rather it was a look at what things are like on the ground in Iraq.  What is going on in the daily lives of Iraqis.  Fadel highlighted the stories of people on all sides of the war because there are so many different perspectives.  You can see the interview or read the transcript here.

What concerns me most with the situation in Iraq right now is how polarized the American public is on the subject.  People are still fighting over whether or not we were right to go in in the first place and those who feel we had/have no business being there want the troops to pick up shop and leave immediately.  The just packing up and going home tomorrow is that it assures “failure.”  While many might argue that the Iraq “experiment” has already been a failure, and I would not argue that “total victory” is still a possible outcome, to leave Iraq now would be a catastrophic mistake.  We made this mess, we need to see it through to the end.  I realize this is very, very easy for me to say sitting here in my safe, warm house listening to my indie hipster pop/rock and lamenting the fact I have to work a second Saturday in a row.  But I am also a arm chair political scientist with a minor in sociology and I love to study 20th century history.  This both gives me hope and caution with what will happen in the next year or so with the American presence in Iraq.

First off, I do not have many answers (if any) and I do not know what the future months hold when it comes to the militias of Iraq (whether they are disbanded or open fighting starts again as the surge troops return home).  What I can see from looking at the last century is this, we (the West/US specifically) dropped the ball big time in Rwanda and Somalia (and depending on the day of the week, Afghanistan kind of goes back and forth), and nation building is incredibly difficult.  Rwanda is the textbook example of a global sin of omission, we could see what was coming and did nothing.  If the US just up and leaves Iraq tomorrow, I do not see how a complete disintegration of the country is avoided.  From what I know of Iraq as a nation, the three regions really do not have much motivation to stay together other than the US saying they have to.  Not that Iraq would be better off as three separate countries, but there does not seem to be much of a unifying Iraqi identity.  Somalia, on the other hand, is a perfect example of what happens when you leave a mess too soon before finding some kind of working solution.  I my mind, the tragedy of the Black Hawk Down story is not just that 13 servicemen lost their lives, but that in the end they died for no real reason.  When military force is brought to bear and lives are put on the line, you must see things through to the end.  This is not meant in a futile sense, if a situation really is untenable, you should get out (a la Vietnam).  But to only go halfway is worse than never going in at all.  Dismantling Iraq and then throwing our hands in the air and leaving when things do not go according to the plans of Washington bureaucrats only gives more fuel to the extremist elements of Islam we supposedly are fighting in Iraq.  All that said, Germany and Japan (albeit completely different situations than Iraq) do stand as strong evidence in support of the possibility of nation building being a successful venture.

Part of what keeps me from being an idealist is that most idealists do not temper their enthusiasm with pragmatism.  When Bush set out in the wake of 9/11, I believe he honestly thought he could reshape the way the world “works” and build strong democracies in Iraq and Afghanistan that would serve as a pattern for the rest of the developing world.  I think he felt people would rally to his calls for democracy and liberty and that he had been appointed (by God or history, take your pick) for the roll as leader of this new age.  As that dream has crumbled, instead of adapting and being willing to change policies on the fly, running with what works and ditching what does not, he has constantly sought to further entrench himself in untenable positions supported only by allies seen as completely lacking in credibility (to the point that some have faced criminal charges for their actions) by outsiders.  At this point, I have my fingers crossed that we can make it through the next 9 months without some catastrophic change for the worse anywhere else in the world.

So long Fred. . .

You may notice I have deleted the Fred Thompson link I used to have on the side of this page. I did that because, well, Fred seems to have completely disappeared off the face of the planet (seriously, can anyone at least confirm that he isn’t dead or passed out in an Iowa cornfield?). So this puts me back in the unfortunate position of once again having to pick a candidate to support in the upcoming (yeah, upcoming as in a year from now) presidential election. Before Iowa I was hesitant to be too vocal just because the field was so broad and there was little point in seriously scrutinizing any of the candidates because there were just so many of them. Well, I’ve made my pick. . . Barak Obama.

*ducks behind a table in case any passing Republicans try to throw something at my head*

Seriously though, if it is Huckabee and Obama, I’m voting for Barak. I came to this conclusion as a result of a mix of things I like about Obama and dislike about Huckabee. First off, my biggest concern with Huckabee is, unfortunately and ironically, his faith. Not that I doubt his convictions or take issue with his faith in general. Rather it is his hints at taking back America for Christ. Now, this is a admirable goal and one I can support. . . coming from the pulpit. I’m concerned that if Huckabee is the President it will be four more years of “God told me. . . ” politics. There is a reason state and religion should be separate, they don’t play well together. Politicized faith is how we end up vilifying peaceful mainstream Islam and entrenching ourselves in an us vs. them world view. Would I like to live in a country where the majority of people were honest and sincere Christians? Of course! But I’m not willing to hand the keys to the country over to someone who thinks that by “taking back” America we can fix it.

Now on the Obama side, I think he is the most exciting candidate I have seen in my “grown-up” life. I don’t agree with every single one of his policies but he does something that I don’t see any other candidate doing. He isn’t playing to his party base, he is going out and telling people it is time to move beyond right and wrong, liberal and conservative, etc and come together to find solutions to the issues we face as a nation. He is seeking to inspire people to be active members of their community and seek political compromise. Maybe you believe in higher taxes, maybe you believe in reduced spending, maybe you believe in both, but regardless of how you feel, we need to figure out how to cut the national debt. Maybe you believe in privatizing social security, maybe you believe in universal health care, whatever, we need to sit down as a nation and figure out a plan that is a long term solution, not just another patch job. I like that he wants to trade increased salaries and more resources for more accountability in schools. I like that he says we need to stop wasting time and make some tough decisions about immigration. You can argue he doesn’t have the experience of Hilary or Gulianni or McCain but the fact he comes from outside the political machine is one of the things I like most about him. Now, traditionally, “outsiders” haven’t always garnered the most support in Congress once in office but I think people are getting fed up with capitol tit for tat. I really do believe in the idea of a post-partisan movement. I laugh at the fact I’m questioning my identification as a Republican now that I’m arguing for a Democratic presidential candidate but I think this has been a long time coming. I think the way the Republicans took a dive off the right end of the party line and the Democrats have done nothing but domestic saber rattling over the last four years is leading people to re-examine their traditional party affiliations. I think that is why Libertarian candidates have seen a rise in popularity and I think that is (part) of why Ron Paul has enjoyed so much success on the internet. I think back to the movie Bullworth where Warren Beatty played a politician who’s political campaign takes off when he starts “telling it like it is” and forcing people to examine their views. I think it is time we stir the pot a little and get people to examine what it means to be a conservative (eg sound fiscal policy, limited government, empowering individuals) or a liberal (eg transparent government, true freedom of speech [yes, even for those crazy "hate mongering" Christians you despise], etc.). Anyway, Coffee Cat is getting ready to close so I’ll wrap this up for now. I was going to write a few more posts about some photography stuff I have going on and some other ideas I have running through my head but those will have to wait for now. Ciao!

Shifting Allegiances?

After watching this video, I may have to change my support over to Mike Huckabee!

Hope in Politics

I just finished listening to a lecture by one of my old profs at SPU. Itunes has this thing called Itunes University that lets you listen to content uploaded by participating schools. Fortunately SPU was somehow one of the launch institutions so I’ve been able to listen to quite a bit of interesting content. Anyway, Dr. Davis, one of my Political Science profs gave a talk on “Hope in Politics.” After moving beyond the obligatory cynical comments at the beginning about how there is no hope for any of us and we are all screwed if not by Social Security then by the slew of health care issues that follow on its heels, Davis settles on the point we only have hope in so far as we think we can make a difference. While it is easy to conclude nothing we do will ever make a difference in the world, and while this seems to be largely supported by the world view of most people who know what they are talking about, the only way we know is to jump in head first and fight for our future. Davis is right on this point. If you look at history, especially current world events, there are only a few people who have truly reshaped the world, Charles Martel, William the Conquerer, Ghangis Khan, George Washington (as the embodiment of the Founding Fathers), Napoleon, Abraham Lincoln, Hitler, Stalin, Ronald Regan, to name a few. However, one of the essential aspects and something that I believe is fundamental to what drives our economy and civilization is the belief that any of us can be one of these world changers. If you want proof, look no further than the lottery. Millions of people spend billions of dollars a year on lotto tickets with the absolute conviction they will win. Millions of people start new business every year because they are convinced their idea is the next big world changing idea. Every once in a while one of them turns out to be a Bill Gates or Richard Branson. I’ll admit I have certainly fallen under this spell, though not in the sense that I’m blowing spare change on lotto tickets, but in the sense that I’ve always felt like God has something more than minimum wage repetitive 8-5 jobs. I don’t think I’m necessarily destined to be rich, but I believe God is going to use me to make an impact on the world around me. So while it is easy to get cynical and feel like we will never make a difference, we can never give up hope or stop trying, because at that point, we are proving worst fears true.

Thoughts on Climate Change

I read through this article on Rolling Stone after seeing a blog post about it on Dan Kimball’s Vintage Faith blog.  The article is an interview with a British scientist named James Lovelock who believes we are all doomed and that the end is just a few brief decades away.  Lovelock has argued, beginning in the 1970’s, the Earth is a giant superorganism we have pushed past its sustainable tipping point.  Since I am not a climatologist, it is a little hard for me to argue with Lovelock’s science, what I can debate him on is call to action, or rather lack of it.  For someone who is so convinced we have caused the end of life as we know it, Lovelock is surprisingly cynical about what we can do to stop or reverse the damage we have done to this point.  I do agree with him when it comes to how sincere the “green business” movement is.  Ever since I learned about the Step 2 Cotton Subsidy program and the power of the corn and sugar lobbies in Washington I’ve been skeptical of the long term practicality of things like e85 Ethanol as an alternative fuel (same with hydrogen fuel cells for cars).  But this doesn’t mean we should abandon movements by large businesses to switch to CFL’s or run their AC a little less during the summer.  I think Lovelock is right about nuclear power too.  People see Chernobyl and mushroom clouds every time someone mentions building a new power plant but the fact remains that it is one of the cleanest and most efficient ways of generating power.  Hydro is not a growth market because of the huge environmental footprint of new dams and wind and solar are far from able to generate power on the scale needed to completely replace fossil fuel based technologies.  I also like that he takes issue with Christians who say we should only concern ourselves people because God will take care of the planet.  God may have given man the ability to subdue the planet but we have been woefully silent when it comes to being good stewards of Creation.

The other problem I have with Lovelock is the way he can’t see past the impending disaster.  If large portions of China become un-inhabitable like Lovelock says, are the Chinese really going to invade Siberia?  Unlikely.  Issues like this can and have been worked out.  The population of the island nation of Tuvalu already has standing plans to move to New Zealand (among other Pacific island locations) should the sea level rise to the point of covering their islands.  Now, obviously it is easier to move 10,000 people than 1 billion, but when faced with either finding a diplomatic solution or going to war, governments will overwhelmingly choose the diplomatic solution.  Human civilization is a “living” superorganism just as as Lovelock argues the planet is.  Lovelock views humans and their actions as predictable and fixed rather than variable and independent.  People will adapt.  Will their be massive famines and huge losses of life in the third world?  I don’t doubt that.  You don’t have to look further than your daily newspaper to realize that the West is largely indifferent to loss of life in Africa and South Asia.  Time and again the West has proved that if you aren’t one of us, you are on your own.  My point is, though, I see it more likely the West will retreat into technology based communities than collapse into hunter-gatherer tribal societies.

I’m certainly not perfect when it comes to my energy consumption.  I certainly use a lot more power than I need to with my love of computers and other gadgets, but I think it is important to take small steps at reducing our personal footprint.  Maybe Lovelock is right and simply changing your light bulbs won’t make a difference at this point.  But if that is the case, then ever time you turn the thermostat down and put on a sweatshirt instead of cranking up the heat, think of it more as training for the future when we all live in Canada and Siberia than doing your part to save the environment.